Texas has been thrust in the national conversation, but statewide and local races are just as critical.
By Gromer Jeffers Jr.
Dallas Morning News
https://www.dallasnews.com/
Jacquelyn Martin / AP
Labor Day marks the unofficial kickoff of the 2026 political season as candidates prepare their campaign launches and those already on the trail shift into a higher gear.
The 2026 midterm contests could be one of the most consequential in the nation’s history.
President Donald Trump wants Republicans to maintain control of the U.S. House and Senate in order to continue to power through his controversial agenda. Trump’s first year of his second presidential term has been defined by his broad expansion of executive power and the redefining of political norms. The roundup of illegal immigrants, cuts by the Department of Government Efficiency and a prolific tariff policy — all done with scant input from Congress — has fueled opposition to Trump.
Texas has a unique role in the national struggle. Gov. Greg Abbott on Friday signed a bill that redraws the state’s congressional boundaries in order to net Republicans five congressional seats. The Texas action has resulted in retaliation in California, where voters will soon decide on Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposal that would net five of the state’s congressional districts to Democrats — and offset any gains made in the Lone Star State.
“Trump and the right are aggressively pushing their agenda. It is fast and furious,” said Republican political consultant Brendan Steinhauser. “That’s why they’re focused so much on redistricting. They want to continue for two more years of this. The president does not want to be a lame duck.”
National politics is just part of the Texas drama.
The Republican Senate fight between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton is one of the marquee races in the country. The fight for the Democratic Senate nomination also has high intrigue, with former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred seeking the nomination in a field that could include state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin and/or former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke.
The state’s executive offices are also on the ballot, including Abbott’s reelection bid and races for lieutenant governor and attorney general.
There are also numerous local state legislative and judicial contests.
“Underneath the national fight you’ve got races across the board — statewide, at the congressional level, basically everywhere,” said longtime lobbyist and political consultant Bill Miller. “These races, even the primaries, are going to be bitter, and they’re going to be acrimonious, and they’re going to be very partisan. You’re going to see a ferocity that I think a lot of people haven’t really seen for a long, long time.”
Democrats are hoping to use 2026 to blunt Trump’s momentum and make gains in Texas.
“Obviously Texas is impacted by what happens nationally and control of the U.S. House is important,” said Democratic strategist Matt Angle. “We understand that Texas will suffer with the rest of the country, if you continue to have this just unchecked march towards authoritarianism.”
From top to bottom, Trump is the most dominating issue in the upcoming midterms, which feature March primaries and November 2026 general elections.
It’s Trump’s second time going through midterm elections. In 2018 Democrats gained 40 congressional seats and flipped the House under Trump’s watch. Health care was a major issue because Trump had vowed to repeal the Affordable Care Act established under President Barack Obama.
Historically the party that controls the White House takes losses in midterm elections. Knowing this, Trump developed the Texas mid-decade redistricting tactic as a buffer against potential House defeats.
The new Texas congressional boundaries, which are now under legal scrutiny, gives Republicans the chance to flip seats in North Texas, Central Texas, the Houston area and South Texas.
“I can’t wait to see if this trend holds,” said Democratic consultant Lisa Turner. “When Trump is in office and not on the ballot, Democrats do really, really well.”
If Democrats want to capitalize on Trump’s mid-term vulnerability, similar to what happened in 2018, they will need to recruit candidates in districts that would normally be considered out of reach, Turner said.
“As Democrats, we would need to go broader than we normally do,” Turner said.
Miller, however, said most Republican-held legislative districts and statewide posts are beyond Democrats’ grasp.
“Democrats can certainly act the part, but I don’t see any change in the Texas political dynamic,” Miller said. “They’re not close enough to make a difference.”
Lone Star politics
The Senate race for the seat held by Cornyn is well worth watching.
Polls show Cornyn has tightened the contest.
A recent Texas Southern University survey has Paxton leading by five percentage points over Cornyn. With Labor Day upon us, observers are waiting to see if U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Houston, joins the fray.
Cornyn and his allies spent the summer attacking Ken Paxton as unfit for office in an effort to erode the attorney general’s strong support among more conservative Texas primary voters.
“It’s a look at where the Republican Party is headed and what that portends for the general [election] and whether or not Democrats may have a chance,” said Michael O. Adams, founding director of the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University.
On the Democratic side, Allred has been campaigning since July 1. In 2024 he lost a Senate contest to Republican Ted Cruz. Now he’s trying to convince primary voters he’s the fighter that can beat Cornyn or Paxton.
Talarico, who once toyed with running against Abbott, is expected to join the Senate primary in the coming days as Texas’ second special legislative session winds down.
The Texas Southern polls showed O’Rourke as the leading Democratic Senate contender. He was polling 20 percentage points ahead of Allred.
Some Democrats are fearful top Democrats will crowd Senate primary and ignore other statewide offices.
“People who think that the only statewide race that matters is the U.S. Senate race are making a mistake,” Angle said. “Things are never perfect in politics, but this is not the year to put our best candidates in just one race.”
The race to replace Paxton as attorney general is wide open.
Late last month, U.S. Rep. Chip Roy joined a GOP field that includes state Reps. Joan Huffman of Houston and Mayes Middleton of Galveston, along with Aaron Reitz, a former top aide to Cruz and Paxton.
Most voters have not made up their minds about that contest, with the Texas Southern poll showing more than 70% of Republicans undecided. That poll was taken before Roy got into the contest.
State Sen. Nathan Johnson of Dallas and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski are vying for the Democratic Party nomination for attorney general.
The top state executive offices feature sleepy races to this point.
Abbott, with a campaign fund of nearly $90 million, does not have significant opposition in the primary or general election.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, with about $45 million in the bank, faces no major primary opponents. State Rep. Vikki Goodwin, D-Austin, is seeking her party’s nomination.
Republican consultant Matthew Langston said Texas politics would be influenced by the national dialogue.
“You’re going to see a connection to President Trump in just about every race,” Langston said. “He’s going to absolutely push his influence and exert political power throughout every state, and a lot will be determined by the state of the economy and other factors. All eyes will be on D.C.”
The Howard University graduate and Chicago native has covered four presidential campaigns and written extensively about local, state and national politics. Before The News, he was a reporter at The Kansas City Star and The Chicago Defender. You can catch Gromer every Sunday at 8:30 a.m. on NBC 5’s Lone Star Politics.
This story, originally published in The Dallas Morning News, is reprinted as part of a collaborative partnership between The Dallas Morning News and Texas Metro News. The partnership seeks to boost coverage of Dallas’ communities of color, particularly in southern Dallas.
